Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
