A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
